توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 20 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the final reading must be captured before the market locks. August typically represents peak summer heat in Tokyo, with historical daily highs regularly exceeding 30°C during this period.

Tokyo's August temperatures have shown considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, the highest temperatures recorded on 20 August ranged from 27.8°C to 34.1°C, reflecting the influence of Pacific high-pressure systems and occasional tropical weather patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either heavily discounting extreme heat scenarios or the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Historical data indicates that temperatures above 35°C on this specific date are rare but not unprecedented, occurring roughly once per decade.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phase entering 2026, which influences Pacific weather patterns feeding into East Asia. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in July 2026 will provide the most actionable guidance on seasonal temperature trends. Traders should monitor late-July weather systems and any anomalous heat waves affecting the broader region, as these typically persist into early August. The specific resolution source—Haneda Airport's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—creates a technical dependency worth verifying against alternative Tokyo weather stations, though Haneda remains Japan's primary aviation meteorological reference point.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.