توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s temperature on 8 August is a straightforward weather outcome market, but the pricing at **0% YES** is only sensible if the contract is being read as a near-certain miss or if the relevant observation window has effectively already passed without a qualifying reading. Tokyo’s August climate is normally hot and humid, with long-run guidance for daytime highs around **31°C** and plenty of mid-30s days, so a zero-implied chance is not a reflection of climatology so much as market structure and timing.[11][12][16]

The closest comparable signal is the city’s recent temperature pattern, which has already delivered highs above **32°C** earlier this month; the official JMA daily table shows Tokyo reaching **36.5°C** on 1 August and **35.3°C** on 2 August, while Haneda itself posted **35.6°C** on 1 August and **33.0°C** on 2 August.[1] That matters because this market resolves off the **highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station** in the official daily observations, not the summary high/low display, so the key comparison is whether Haneda produces a new peak within the settlement window rather than what broader Tokyo forecasts say.[1]

For traders, the main catalyst is the live observation sequence on Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table through the settlement cut-off, with the JMA daily data providing the clearest external cross-check on whether conditions are materially hot enough to force a higher printed maximum.[1][15] The latest Tokyo forecast data still points to afternoon temperatures in the low **30s°C** around 8 August, which keeps the upside limited unless the airport station posts an unexpectedly sharp spike.[7][9] Local event schedules such as the Jingu Gaien fireworks and other August gatherings may affect urban heat and evening demand, but they do not change the settlement source; only the station-observed maximum does.[13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.