توقع: Highest temperature in Toronto on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Toronto's weather on 12 August 2026 will be measured at Pearson International Airport, with the settlement hinging on the highest temperature recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than their summary figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders expect temperatures to fall outside the upper range bracket being priced.

August temperatures at Toronto Pearson typically peak between 24–27°C, with historical daily highs rarely exceeding 30°C during this period. The station's records from the past decade show that extreme heat days—those reaching 32°C or above—occur in roughly 5–8% of August days, usually clustered in early-to-mid month during heat dome events. The 0% pricing reflects either confidence in a cooler-than-average forecast or positioning against an outlier scenario; comparable August 12th observations from 2015–2024 show a median high of 25.2°C with only two instances above 28°C.

Traders should monitor Environment Canada's extended forecast as mid-July 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts for high-pressure systems or heat warnings across southern Ontario. Upper-air patterns and jet stream positioning in early August will signal whether continental tropical air masses penetrate the region. Any issued heat advisory from Environment Canada typically precedes temperatures above 29°C at the airport station, making such announcements a key trigger for reassessing the market's current pricing.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Toronto on August 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.