توقع: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature reached on 17 August 2026, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. This single daily minimum forms the settlement basis, with resolution contingent on official publication in the Observatory's Daily Extract once the date has passed and data finalisation is complete.

August temperatures in Hong Kong cluster tightly around seasonal norms. Historical records show absolute daily minima in mid-August typically range between 24°C and 27°C, with the 30-year average around 25.5°C. Extreme outliers—readings below 23°C or above 29°C on a single August day—occur rarely enough that markets pricing such outcomes at zero reflect genuine scarcity rather than trader error. The Observatory's consistent measurement methodology across decades provides reliable baseline data for calibrating probability bands.

Tropical cyclone activity represents the primary catalyst capable of shifting August temperatures materially. The Northwest Pacific typhoon season peaks in August, and a system passing within several hundred kilometres of Hong Kong can suppress daily minima by 2–4°C through cloud cover and wind circulation. Current seasonal forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and regional models will become actionable from July onwards. Secondary factors include urban heat island effects and localised weather patterns, though these produce marginal variation. Traders should monitor late-July atmospheric conditions and any tropical system development tracking towards the South China Sea in early August.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.