Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Game 3 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: 3V (-1.5) vs LYON Academy (+1.5) | 100% |
| Game Handicap: 3V (-2.5) vs LYON Academy (+2.5) | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Game 4 Winner | 63% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 0% |
Market context
The lower bracket quarterfinal between 3v Team and LYON Academy in the LRN Playoffs takes place on 17 August at 7:00PM ET, with the match format set as a best-of-five series. This encounter determines progression in what remains a relatively young competitive League of Legends circuit in North America, where academy-tier rosters compete for playoff positioning and qualification points.
The 100% implied probability reflects either exceptionally strong conviction around 3v Team's superiority or sparse liquidity in the market itself. Historical precedent suggests that academy-level LoL matches carry higher volatility than their professional counterparts; upsets occur with measurable frequency when rosters feature roster changes, substitute players, or coaching adjustments mid-season. Without recent head-to-head records between these specific squads or published strength-of-schedule analyses from LRN organisers, the current odds warrant scrutiny. Academy tournaments frequently see teams perform inconsistently across patches and meta shifts, particularly in lower bracket play where preparation time may differ substantially.
Traders should monitor LRN's official schedule for any postponements or format changes announced before the settlement window closes on 18 August at 05:00 UTC. Roster confirmations—particularly whether either team fields full lineups or rotates players—typically emerge 24–48 hours before match time. Any announcement of cancellation, technical delays exceeding seven days, or match incompletion without a decisive result triggers the 50-50 resolution clause. The tight settlement window relative to the scheduled match time leaves minimal buffer for dispute resolution.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: 3v Team vs LYON Academy (BO5) - LRN Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade توقع: LoL: 3v Team vs LYON Academy (BO5) - LRN Playoffs on احتمالات كأس العالم
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