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توقع: Presidential Election Winner 2028

Football snapshot for "توقع: Presidential Election Winner 2028" with form, lineup and platform comparison on a single page.

JD Vance 20% Gavin Newsom 12% Marco Rubio 12% Jon Ossoff 9% Volume: $671.6M Liquidity: $50.2M Closes: 7 Nov 2028
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توقع: Presidential Election Winner 2028

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 20% 80% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 20% 80% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
JD Vance20%
Gavin Newsom12%
Marco Rubio12%
Jon Ossoff9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez8%
Kamala Harris5%
Josh Shapiro3%
Pete Buttigieg2%
Donald Trump2%
Ron DeSantis2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2%
Wes Moore1%
Gretchen Whitmer1%
Andy Beshear1%
Glenn Youngkin1%
JB Pritzker1%
Tulsi Gabbard1%
Donald Trump Jr.1%
Nikki Haley1%
Greg Abbott1%
Elon Musk1%
Tucker Carlson1%
Michelle Obama1%
Jamie Dimon1%
Ro Khanna1%
Thomas Massie1%
James Talarico1%
Stephen Smith0%
Tim Walz0%
Vivek Ramaswamy0%
LeBron James0%
Kim Kardashian0%
Ivanka Trump0%
Zohran Mamdani0%
Eric Trump0%
Pete Hegseth0%
Jalen Brunson0%
Abigail Spanberger0%
Hakeem Jeffries0%
Elissa Slotkin0%
Adam Schiff0%
Josh Stein0%
Alex Padilla0%
Candace Owens0%
Tim Scott0%
Mike Johnson0%
Doug Burgum0%
Tom Cotton0%
John N. Kennedy0%
Rick Scott0%
Person AD0%
Person AE0%
Person AF0%
Person AG0%
Person AH0%
Person AI0%
Person AJ0%
Person AK0%
Person AL0%
Person AM0%
Person AN0%
Person AO0%
Person AP0%
Person AQ0%
Person AR0%
Person AS0%
Person AT0%
Person AU0%
Person AV0%
Person AW0%
Person AX0%
Person AY0%
Person AZ0%
Person BA0%
Person BB0%
Person BC0%
Person BD0%
Person BE0%
Person BF0%
Person BG0%
Person BH0%
Person BI0%
Person BJ0%
Person BK0%
Person BL0%
Person BM0%
Person BN0%
Person BO0%
Person BP0%
Person BQ0%
Person BR0%
Person BS0%
Person BT0%
Person BU0%
Person BV0%
Person BW0%
Person BX0%
Person BY0%
Person BZ0%
Person CA0%
Person CB0%
Person CC0%
Person CD0%
Person CE0%
Person CF0%
Person CG0%
Person CH0%
Person CI0%
Person CJ0%
Person CK0%
Person CL0%
Person CM0%
Person CN0%
Person CO0%
Person CP0%
Person CQ0%
Person CR0%
Person CS0%
Person CT0%
Person CU0%
Person CV0%
Person CW0%
Person CX0%
Person CY0%
Person CZ0%
Person DA0%
Person DB0%
Other0%

Market context

Market consensus: 20% chance of توقع: presidential election winner 2028. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, thi…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Presidential Election Winner 2028. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Maya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets WriterandPriya SharmaPriya SharmaCrypto & DeFi Analyst

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