Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Terence Atmane against Alejandro Tabilo is a round-of-16 match in Washington that has no previous head-to-head record, so the market is leaning on rank, recent form and surface comfort rather than any direct matchup history. The current crowd price of 28% for Atmane is notably below the projection on Tennis.com, which listed Tabilo at about 58% pre-match, while another preview site put Atmane’s recent match-wins and season record in a narrower range that still left Tabilo as the more established hard-court player.[15][13][1][2]
The form read is mixed but still favours Tabilo on balance. Tennisratio lists Tabilo at 30-23 over the last 52 weeks and 10-14 against top-100 opponents, versus Atmane at 33-31 and 8-11 against top-100 players, with Atmane also showing a poor 2-8 run over his last ten matches.[2] On career surface splits, Tabilo’s hard-court numbers are stronger than Atmane’s, and that matters in Washington’s quick conditions; Atmane’s best results have come elsewhere, with clay doing most of the work in his overall record.[2][17]
For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: whether the match is actually completed on schedule, whether either side gets a late fitness or withdrawal update, and how the draw is reshuffled around surrounding matches in the Citi Open order of play. Live listing pages already had the matchup on the card and tagged Atmane as ATP 56 against Tabilo at ATP 30, so any late change to that scheduling or to player status would matter more than pre-match noise.[4][7][15] If the match is delayed, abandoned or not finished within the market’s settlement window, the contract terms point to a 50-50 outcome rather than a normal winner call.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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