Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Austin FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Dallas O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Dallas O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Dallas 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Austin FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| FC Dallas 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Austin FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Dallas 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| FC Dallas (-1.5) | 15% |
| FC Dallas O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Austin FC O/U 1.5 | 11% |
| Austin FC O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| O/U 4.5 | 2% |
| FC Dallas (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Austin FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Austin FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Austin FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Austin FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Dallas 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Austin FC and FC Dallas meet in an MLS regular-season fixture on 16 August at 8:30 PM ET, with settlement dependent on additional market offerings being available for this match. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain whether supplementary betting options will materialise or are pricing in a genuine absence of secondary markets for this particular fixture.
Historical precedent shows MLS regular-season matches between in-state rivals typically attract expanded market coverage, particularly when both clubs field competitive rosters. However, market availability depends on operator discretion and liquidity thresholds. The Texas Derby has generated sufficient trading volume in prior seasons to justify multiple markets, but scheduling conflicts, broadcaster agreements, or lower-than-expected interest can restrict offerings. Comparable August fixtures in 2024 and 2025 saw variable market depth; some weeks featured comprehensive options whilst others saw minimal secondary markets despite strong attendance.
Traders should monitor official MLS fixture confirmations and any team announcements regarding squad availability in the week preceding 16 August. Injury updates to key players—particularly Austin's attacking options or Dallas's defensive core—can shift perceived match competitiveness and thus operator appetite for additional markets. Broadcast details and regional betting restrictions may also influence whether platforms expand their offering. Real-time liquidity signals from existing Austin–Dallas markets, if any open earlier, will serve as the strongest indicator of whether supplementary options materialise before settlement.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Austin FC vs. FC Dallas - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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