Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 83% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 75% |
| CR Vasco da Gama O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 55% |
| O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Club Olimpia O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Club Olimpia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Club Olimpia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Club Olimpia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CR Vasco da Gama O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Club Olimpia O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 32% |
| CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5) | 28% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 28% |
| Both Teams to Score | 26% |
| O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Club Olimpia (-2.5) | 14% |
| CR Vasco da Gama O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| CR Vasco da Gama (-2.5) | 11% |
| Club Olimpia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 10% |
| O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| Club Olimpia O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 3% |
| O/U 5.5 | 2% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 2% |
| Club Olimpia (-1.5) | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
Market context
Vasco da Gama will face Club Olimpia in a Copa Sudamericana fixture on 13 August at 6:00 PM ET. The match represents a knockout-stage encounter in South America's secondary continental competition, with the aggregate result determining progression. Olimpia, based in Paraguay, enters as the away side; Vasco, the Rio de Janeiro club, plays at home in the first leg.
The 30% implied probability for "more markets" reflects uncertainty around fixture scheduling and broadcast availability rather than match outcome itself. Copa Sudamericana knockout rounds typically generate secondary betting markets once team news solidifies—squad lists, injury confirmations, and suspension details typically emerge 48–72 hours before kickoff. Historical precedent shows that early-window probabilities on derivative markets often shift sharply once official lineups are published, particularly when key players are ruled out or confirmed fit. Olimpia's recent domestic form in the Paraguayan Primera División and Vasco's standing in the Brazilian Série A will anchor expectations once both clubs confirm their travelling squads.
Traders should monitor official Copa Sudamericana communications for confirmed fixture details, venue confirmation, and any last-minute rescheduling. Team news from both clubs' official channels—particularly regarding suspensions carried forward from earlier rounds and injury updates—will be decisive. Vasco's recent domestic results and Olimpia's continental pedigree (the club has won the Copa Sudamericana twice) provide context, but the availability of specific secondary markets depends on broadcaster interest and betting operator decisions in the 72 hours preceding the match.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: CR Vasco da Gama vs. Club Olimpia - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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