Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 2% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5) | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Team to Advance | 0% |
Market context
Hearts will travel to Lisbon on 13 August for a UEFA Europa League qualifier against Benfica, a two-legged tie that determines progression to the group stage. The match kicks off at 19:45 local time (18:45 ET). This is Hearts' first European fixture of the season following their Scottish Premiership campaign, whilst Benfica enter as defending Primeira Liga champions with continental experience across multiple seasons.
The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current inability to price specific outcomes for secondary markets tied to this fixture—likely because the underlying match details, team sheets, or settlement criteria remain undefined. Historical precedent shows that Europa League qualifiers between Scottish and Portuguese sides rarely settle on opening odds; traders typically await confirmed line-ups, injury bulletins, and official broadcaster confirmation 48–72 hours before kick-off. Benfica's recent form in European competition and Hearts' domestic standing would normally anchor expectations, but without explicit market mechanics published, the probability sits at a floor.
Catalysts to monitor include official team news from both clubs, expected around 11–12 August. Hearts manager Neil Lennon will confirm squad availability following their domestic fixtures; Benfica's medical team will release any suspension or injury updates affecting their squad rotation. Fixture congestion—Hearts may have a Scottish Cup or league match days before departure—could affect player freshness. Settlement hinges on whether the market resolves on aggregate result, first-leg outcome, or a specific event (goals, cards, corners); clarification from the exchange will likely trigger repricing once the exact conditions are published.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade توقع: Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benf… on احتمالات كأس العالم
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