Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 100% |
| Jackson to win by KO/TKO? | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 100% |
| Ends before Round 3? | 100% |
| Jackson in Round 2 | 100% |
| Ricky Simon vs. Montel Jackson | 0% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 0% |
| Simon to win by KO/TKO? | 0% |
| Fight won by submission? | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 0% |
| Fight won by decision? | 0% |
| Ends before Round 2? | 0% |
| Simon in Round 1 | 0% |
| Simon in Round 2 | 0% |
| Simon in Round 3 | 0% |
| Jackson in Round 1 | 0% |
| Jackson in Round 3 | 0% |
| Decision or Draw | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, توقع: ufc fight night: ricky simon vs. montel jackson (bantamweight, prelims) stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to "Ricky Simon" if Ricky Simon is officially declared the winner of the fight against Montel Jackson at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $211K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Prelims). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
Trade توقع: UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Montel Jackso… on احتمالات كأس العالم
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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