Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Edas Butvilas and Daniel Milavsky are scheduled to meet in Brownsburg on 12 August 2026, with the settlement window closing on 19 August. The 0% implied probability reflects either absent trading activity or a technical listing issue, as both players are active professionals with documented recent competition records. Butvilas, a Lithuanian player, and Milavsky, competing at lower-tier professional circuits, have limited public head-to-head history that would justify such an extreme probability skew absent withdrawal or cancellation signals.
The Brownsburg event sits within the broader August tennis calendar, typically featuring Challenger-level or ITF tournaments where both players compete regularly. Recent form data for players at this tier fluctuates considerably based on surface preference, travel schedules, and accumulated fatigue from back-to-back events. Traders should monitor official tournament draws released closer to the event date, as late withdrawals due to injury or scheduling conflicts are common at this level. The seven-day delay clause in the settlement terms means matches postponed beyond 19 August would trigger a 50-50 resolution, a material risk given weather patterns and tournament logistics in August.
Key catalysts include confirmation of the final draw, any injury announcements from either player's social media or ATP/ITF databases, and surface conditions at the Brownsburg venue. Court surface—clay, hard, or grass—significantly influences matchup dynamics between players with different playing styles. Traders should verify the tournament's official status and prize money tier, as lower-ranked events sometimes face cancellation or consolidation. The settlement window's tight seven-day buffer means delays beyond 19 August are plausible if matches run behind schedule.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Brownsburg: Edas Butvilas vs Daniel Milavsky. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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