توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 18 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This reading will be taken from the Observatory's official monitoring network and published in the Daily Extract section of their climate database once the date has passed and data finalisation is complete.

August temperatures in Hong Kong cluster consistently in the 32–34°C range, with absolute daily maxima rarely exceeding 35°C during the month. Historical records show that the territory's hottest August days typically occur in the first half of the month, whilst mid-to-late August often sees marginal cooling as the southwest monsoon season transitions. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting specific temperature thresholds to be defined in the market's resolution bands, or the market has not yet attracted substantive trading activity ahead of the settlement window.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's extended forecasts as August 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or unusual atmospheric patterns that might drive temperatures into less common ranges. The Observatory publishes nine-day forecasts and seasonal outlooks that could signal whether conditions favour above-normal or below-normal temperatures for that specific date. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's publication of finalised Daily Extract data, which typically occurs within days of the calendar date, though delays occasionally occur during periods of system maintenance or data verification.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.